A multistage stochastic programming model for a multi-period strategic expansion of biofuel supply chain under evolving uncertainties

Abstract

We develop a multistage, stochastic mixed-integer model to support biofuel supply chain expansion under evolving uncertainties. By utilizing the block-separable recourse property, we reformulate the multistage program in an equivalent two-stage program and solve it using an enhanced nested decomposition method with maximal non-dominated cuts. We conduct extensive numerical experiments and demonstrate the application of the model and algorithm in a case study based on the South Carolina settings. The value of multistage stochastic programming method is also explored by comparing the model solution with the counterparts of an expected value based deterministic model and a two-stage stochastic model.