An Assessment of Energy Potential from New Stream-reach Development in the United States: Initial Report on Methodology

Abstract

This methodology report addresses the datasets, assumptions, processing, and analyses (hereafter collectively termed methodology) necessary to produce assessments of national, regional, and state potential for hydropower development in heretofore undeveloped stream reaches with a nominal potential capacity greater than 1 megawatt. This methodology considers “new stream-reach development” as a hydropower resource class distinct from other hydropower resource classes identified by the Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Program. The proposed methodology will ideally result in estimates of installed capacity and average annual energy generation for the identified stream reaches, and can also estimate inundated areas, reservoir volumes, and approximate hydraulic heads for hypothetical development locations in those areas. The methodology was designed to accommodate the whole of over 3 million U.S. streams to identify opportunities for new hydropower development. Within the limitations of finite resources, this wide spatial scope demands an approximate methodology that (a) resolves aggregate potential within hydrologic regions and electric power systems and (b) enables the modeling of regional and national scenarios of existing and new electric power generation technology deployment through the development of hydropower capacity cost versus supply curves. This methodology does not produce estimates of capacity, production, cost, or impacts of sufficient accuracy to determine absolute economic feasibility or to justify financial investments in individual site development. It does, however, allow for the identification of stream reaches of high energy intensity, and classification of new potential areas for hydropower development using a range of technical, socio-economic, and environmental characteristics. The products of this effort will differ from previous assessments of new hydropower development opportunities, which used fixed sets of assumptions to determine the overall potential for likely future hydropower development. The goal of this project is to produce datasets and tools that allow for multiple analyses to be conducted by different organizations and individuals using a wide variety of development scenarios and assumptions.