Assessing Energy Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles at the U.S. National Level—Preliminary Bounds and Proposed Methods

Abstract

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) can have tremendous impacts on transportation energy use. Using published literature to establish bounds for factors impacting vehicle demand and vehicle efficiency, we find that CAVs can potentially lead to a threefold increase or decrease in light-duty vehicle energy consumption in the United States. Much of this uncertainty is due to possible changes in travel patterns (in vehicle miles traveled) or fuel efficiency (in gallons per mile), as well as future adoption levels and patterns of use. This chapter details the factors which go into these estimates, and presents a methodological approach for refining this wide range of estimated fuel consumption.