Qualitative Decision and Risk Assessment Approaches for Managing Nuclear Materials

Abstract

Qualitative approaches to performing decision analyses and risk assessments have recently been developed at ORNL with the goal of providing simple tools to help manage complex projects that have a variety of drivers, constraints, or both. Many of the DOE’s nuclear materials management projects involve making “keep-or-dispose” decisions for nuclear materials and then developing projects to manage or dispose of the materials. ORNL uses decision analysis tools to identify and rank options for accomplishing nuclear materials management projects, and risk assessment tools to evaluate the preferred option(s) to identify risks and prioritize mitigation actions to reduce risks during implementation. This paper focuses on application of the decision analysis and risk-based planning tool(s) to guide management of projects during the planning and start-up phases when only preliminary project information is likely to be available. Such an analysis seeks to reduce risks, lower costs, and improve chances of project success. Examples showing the use of the tools in nuclear waste management scenarios are provided.