SCENARIOS FOR VULNERABILITY – opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Abstract

Most scientific assessments for adaptation and risk reduction in the context of climate change use bio-geophysical scenarios of climatic change. However, scenarios for socioeconomic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are often lacking. This paper focuses on whether and how scenarios could also be used for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios and reflects on the current debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and scenarios at the global level. It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk, vulnerability and adaptation research in the light of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to explore and illustrate the opportunities and current constraints: firstly, the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators and, secondly, a local participatory scenario development process, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative local approach provides insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. Finally, conclusions are drawn on the opportunities and constraints of scenarios for vulnerability research. In addition lessons for SSPs discussion and research challenges are presented.